Gillian Tett looks beyond yesterday's Today item on "jurisdiction shopping" by banks. She warns there is an unintended consequence of the current worldwide desire to bash the bankers. Legislators in key countries are busy unilaterally changing internationally-agreed rules. Unfortunately, Tett says, this makes it more likely that practices illegal in one country but legal in another will be used to cover up looming catastrophes in the capital markets.
I'm very excited to be typing this post: Apple have just unveiled their new tablet, the iPad! For those of you wondering why I didn't write this post sooner, waiting for this was the reason. In fact, I have to say I'm more excited about this one thing than I am over any of the other things I've discussed (or will discuss) in this series! Will the iPad really revolutionise the tablet industry or is it just a giant iPod touch?
And how could this save the news industry?
The buzzword of the future is definitely convergence. As I mentioned towards the end of the last article new technologies tend to see older technologies coming together. Despite the thick fog of the future, convergence of technologies is the one thing that we can count on to emerge from the mists of time. It has happened before (think computers), it is happening now (think smartphones) and it is set to keep happening (think of the web as seen in project Aurora). So what is the next big area for convergence?
The line between computers and phones is becoming increasingly hard to draw. From fixed line phones you got mobile phones, from mobile phones you got smartphones. From desktop computers you got laptops, from laptops you got netbooks. From another perspective you have Skype and other software allowing you to make calls from your computer, while apps allow you to run programs on your smartphone. The internet is also bridging the gap between the two worlds, acting as a shared space accessible from both. Will we eventually end up with one device that does everything? Like in those cartoons of the future, where people wear gizmos on their wrists, which spout holograms and extendable antennae? I'm willing to bet that by the end of the decade we will, though it won't quite look the same nor have the capability for 3D holograms (yet). (By the way this doesn't mean no 3D screens, see Part 1).
There was a lot of hype last year about 'netbooks'. These were meant to be the new big thing, tiny and portable version of laptops with internet access, often on a contractual basis as with a smartphone. I laughed at them then and I'm pleased to finally see other people doing the same now: as Apple CEP Steve Jobs put it at the Apple conference earlier today, netbooks are "just cheap laptops". They were never going to take off; a tiny screen, an uncomfortably small keyboard and pretty awful system specs. The smartphones are here now and they pretty much killed the whole concept of netbooks. And you don't have to take my word for it, the BBC thinks they're on the way out too - though I'd argue they were never really here. You would probably be horrified to hear that now new, even smaller netbooks are on the way - known as 'smartbooks' they'll be capable of making phone calls, like an uncomfortable and overlarge smartphone. Rest assured other, more innovative technology is bound to outstrip these too, so you need not worry.
With the rise of the iPod Touch touchscreen technology is suddenly big. Allowing you to 'naturally' interact with technology - that's what it's all about. Increased user-friendliness and simplicity are both products of a well integrated touchscreen system and it's being implemented more and more into existing technologies as a result. Windows certainly thinks it's the way forward, with Windows 7 having touchscreen capabilities (albeit they are somewhat limited). Check out Windows Surface, to see their incredible new table-top touch software in action. Ordering 'on' your table in restaurants is just one commercial possibility for Surface, but Windows said back in 2007 that we could expect to see it launched to the public this Summer or next. Knowing Windows and deadlines though, this is more likely to be a few more years away before public release and several more before 'intelligent surfaces' become affordable to the average household. Yet just how practical Surface will be for your average household remains to be seen.
At last, we come to tablets - and more specifically to the new Apple iPad! Watch the video if you have time, because this one is going to be HUGE. Early reactions to the new Apple tablet (which mercifully didn't go by the predicted name of the 'iSlate') seem to be disappointed, quick to discard it as unoriginal, unimaginative and simply a giant iPod touch. "Where is the famous Apple innovation?" bay the hounds. "But what of the even more famous Apple simplicity?" I throw back at them. With a product like the iPad, Apple doesn't need to reinvent the wheel. It already revolutionised everything with its iPod touch, so why should it come up with something completely new? Apple has been smart on this one and worked with convergence and simplicity, rather than innovation. So yes, it is pretty much just a giant iPod Touch, with a few tweaks and improvements made.
Tablets are going to be the true hybrid monster in between smartphones and computers. The iPad may nto be able to phone people (barring Skype and other VOIP software), but there is little doubt that later versions will have this capability and much more. Think the size is ridiculous? It's not, it's smart. But you may have to look at the latest concepts of what tablets should be able to do to appreciate it. Tablets are not just a replacement or convergence of computers and smartphones - in fact, tablets are still some way off from truly melding phones and computers together (first bendy screens need to be perfected, but that's another story if you're interested).
Tablets are first and foremost reader devices. Amazon's Kindle tablet is only a reader device, while the iPad can be praised as taking it to the next step by being a brilliant web reading device with the capability to allow much more interactivity and far more innovative and empathic reading sessions. Ever seen sci-fi movies where they wander around with an electronic clip-board? That's what the iPad is, an electronic clipboard, a very portable device for reading and working, not a replacement for computers or phones (yet). Weighing in at under a kilogram, with 10 hours of battery life and wifi enabled, it really is portable. For those of you who have your doubts that people will want to read digital books, I point to the iTunes store and the earlier views that nobody would want to do away with the friendly CD format. Apple will also be launching their new ebook store (iBooks) with their iPad, expect it to have the same effect. While previous e-libraries have failed to really take-off, never before did they have such an engaging device as the iPad to take advantage of.
An absolutely amazing video that I highly recommend you watch all about news and magazine consumption on future tablets is this one by Bonnier Research & Development. You could also have a look at the Sports Illustrated tablet concept preview from Time Inc. to see how a tablet magazine subscription could work, or at this CourseSmart video to get an idea of how it could be used to replace school books or lecture notes (although this one is the least impressive). Smartly designed tablet publications could very well save the news industry from it's current decline and failure to convince people to pay for news online - news in an interactive table format, on a subscription basis, looks very appealing. It should also work out at a far cheaper cost than printing once the infrastructure is in place.
One feature I would have liked to have seen included in the iPad is that of touch-vibration. The idea would be that as you press buttons on the screen you get a very brief vibration-response so that you know you've pressed it properly. This could make touchscreen software even more user-friendly, though so far nobody has actually succeeded in taking this concept and making it work. LG tried it with some of their previous phones and only achieved the creation of some extremely annoying and user-infuriating devices, though I still think the idea has potential.
Being able to writing notes on a tablet would be also nice and Microsoft (who of course also have a tablet on the way) have included it as one of their main tablet features. But watching their video, it doesn't look like their tablet is going to be a success, it's far too concentrated on being an e-diary than actually focussing on being a reader device. It almost looks set to be another Microsoft Zune (Microsoft's iPod 'killer'...but it didn't really work out).
Moving away from tablets for a moment, Google Wave is another great example of convergence. It's essentially trying to mash email, twitter, social networking, instant messaging and various online applications together. Check out James Woodcock's brief article on it here on the CfJ website.
Finally, the concept of mobile phone projectors is pretty cool and bound to come to the world of tablets soon - imagine just taking a tablet out of your bag at school, university or work, setting it up on a desk and running your presentation. On a business trip? No need to worry about finding a fully equipped conference room. All you'll need is a suitable surface to project it on to. Of course, it's only just reached the smartphone world - check out the LG projector phone advert here. Expect it to hit the mass smartphone market by early 2011.
To end what has been a pretty long article, I now give you a link to a video about the 6th Sense Project being developed over at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); this again shows the idea and importance of convergence and is very similar to the idea of the physical and the virtual world overlapping as discussed in my last article. Whether the 6th Sense concept will ever be successful or not is debatable, one would imagine it needs to become far more user-friendly and appealing to the consumer before it does. Much more likely is the idea of contact lenses utilizing similar tech - again see my last article. Even more interesting perhaps is that the video I have linked you to is a TED video - part of a series of talks available to watch online about some of the most innovative and exciting ideas about changing the world. If you ever have 20 minutes to spare I highly recommend watching a TED vid, they're fascinating (my favourite is this one on education creativity). The University of Kent recently hosted TEDx talks which excited me greatly, but due to lectures I was unable to attend - with luck they'll host them again next year though! Look out for them if you're in the area.
Coming up next time in the final installment of these very long articles: the more whacky, wild and ever-so-slightly unbelievable theories around about what the future holds in store for us...that just might be true!
